Tom Williams, a keen Labour and Nick Bent supporter, is very keen on Twitter and constantly takes me to task over what he considers to be the ‘dodgy’ Liberal Democrat squeeze message in our literature.

David Mowat, the Conservative candidate for Warrington South uses an equally ‘dodgy’ squeeze bar chart based on voting in the last General Election to dismiss Liberal Democrat chances in Warrington South.

Our aspiration to have Jo Crotty elected to represent Warrington South in Parliament is based on our strength on Warrington Borough Council.

A UKIP supporter leaving a message on UK Polling Report has counted up the party votes in local elections in Warrington South in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008:

“I suspect they have a much bigger Lib Dem local vote at the expense of both main parties General Election vote”

Your suspicions are correct:

2008 (added to original Polling Report figures)

LD    13608 47.6%
Con     8544 29.9%
Lab     5782 20.2%
Oth       664 2.3%

2007

LD    14292 52.5 %
Con     6229 22.9 %
Lab     6035 22.2 %
Oth        654   2.4 %

2006

LD   12107 50.0 %
Con    5882 24.3 %
Lab     5577 23.0 %
Oth       663   2.7 %

Which all looks very impressive but isn’t all that different to the result in the all up elections in 2004:

LD   17720 48.1 %
Con   8953 24.3 %
Lab    8775 23.8 %
Oth    1385   3.8 %

So Liberal Democrat aspirations in Warrington South are based on some of our strong local election performance being transferred to trust in the Liberal Democrats at the General Election. Our candidate has already represented a ward in the constituency very ably on Warrington Borough Council and will make an excellent MP. We are encouraged by Nick Clegg’s excellent performance in the national Leaders’ debate.

The Conservatives have flat lined in Warrington South for the last three elections. David Mowat’s aspirations rest on a hope that a national lead in the polls, which appears to have evaporated in the last few days, will translate into a better performance in Warrington South than in the last three General Elections when the Conservatives have consistently failed to achieve a third of the vote.

Nick Bent hopes that the haemorrhage of Labour votes to the Liberal Democrats in Warrington South slows down. He has a hard job, as the incumbent MP, Helen Southworth has given up on a seat she held with little enthusiasm and the local party have been behaving as though it was a lost cause for a while now. He is also hampered by a lack of resources or adequate support from the national and local parties. He is working very hard to make the seat his own by being enormously energetic and enthusiastic since he was adopted in January.

So what should voters do in Warrington South? Make up their own minds as they always do. Don’t vote to keep someone out, don’t vote for second best. If you like the Real Change the Liberal Democrats offer, if you like Nick Clegg, if you want fairer taxes, fairer schools, a greener economy and cleaner politics vote for Jo Crotty.

If you want a Liberal Democrat MP vote Liberal Democrat for Real Change.